RUNNING EXPRESS
2017 Outlook for the Intercity
Bus Industry in the United States
CHADDICK INSTITUTE FOR METROPOLITAN DEVELOPMENT AT DEPAUL UNIVERSITY | POLICY SERIES
BY BRIAN ANTOLIN & JOSEPH P. SCHWIETERMAN* | JANUARY 13, 2017
2017
CHADDICK INSTITUTE FOR METROPOLITAN DEVELOPMENT AT DEPAUL UNIVERSITY
BRIAN ANTOLIN AND JOSEPH P. SCHWIETERMAN*
RILEY O’NEIL AND DANA YANOCHA
DATA
COLLECTION
AUTHORS
THE STUDY TEAM
RACHAEL SMITH
GRAPHICS
FROM TOP RIGHT, COUNTER CLOCKWISE: PHOTO BY ROB YOUNG, HUSSEIN ABDALLAH,
EDDIE (USERNAME), AND M.O. STEVENS.
ALL PHOTOS LICENSED UNDER CREATIVE COMMONS.
PHOTOGRAPHY
*CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
VERSION 2
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Intercity)bu s)lines )rolled )into)the )new)y ea r )with )an)imp r o ve d )sho rt-term )outloo k)due)to)several)factors:)a)
slowly)recove ring)economy,) upw ard)movement)in)the)cost)of) g asoline,) a nd)growing) custom er)awareness)
of)new)tech-oriented)service)enhancements.)Several)potentially)disruptive)forces,)however,)loom)on)the)
horizon.)This)report)summarizes)the)intercity)bus)industry’s)performance)and)competitive)status.)Part%I)
provides)insights)into)what)can)be)expected)to)affect)the)sector)over)the)next)several)years)based)on)a)
review)of) no tab le) trend s.)Part%II)explores)the)evolving)competitive)landscape)of)the)intercity)bus)industry,)
including )t h e)p re v ale n c e)o f)e x pr es s)b u s )se rv ice )in )th e )co u n try ’s)most)heavily-tra ve led)m a rkets.! !!
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I. SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE INTERCITY BUS INDUSTRY!
The!following!trends!are!sources!of!both!optimism!and!uncertainty!for!scheduled!intercity!bus!travel.!!
TREND 1:!
Years! of! relatively! flat! traffic! and! passenger! revenues! culminated! in! targeted! cuts! by! prominent!
carriers! in! 2016,! but! revenues! from! passenger! operations! appear! on! an! upward! trajectory! and! are!
likely!to!grow!arou n d !three!per c e n t!this!year .!Several!fa c to r s,!inclu d in g !an!uptick !in!the!price!of!fuel,!
suggest!that!market!forces!that!have!m arginalized!the!grow th!in!bus!traffic!are!subsiding.! !
The!past!two!calendar!years!have!shown!trying!times!for!scheduled!intercity!operators.!Relatively!low!
fuel! price s! nullified! some ! of! the ! advanta ge s! of! b ein g! a! fu el-efficient! major! m ode! of! intercity! ground!
travel.!Autom ob ile!co m p etition! inten sified! as!a !result,!with!the!national!average!price!of!gasoline!staying!
below!$2.50!throughout!all!of!2016.
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!Airline!prices!remained!at!their!lowest!levels!in!years,!with!average!
roundtrip!ticket!p rices!falling!to !$361.20!in!20 16,!down!almost!$20!from!2015,!apparently!hurting!bus!
travel!on! ro ute s! in! w h ich! flying ! is!a n! o p tion.
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!Worst-case!scenarios!about!long!TSA !secu rity!lines!failed!to!
materialize.! Finally,! a! downturn! in! rail-freight! traffic! sign ifican tly! improve d! Am trak’s! on-time!
performance,!luring!some!short-hop!passengers!away!from!buses.!! !
Nevertheless,!recent!signals!have! been!encouraging.!Most! notably,! the!price! of!oil! has!gradually!m oved!
upward,!rising!from!around!$31.68!in!January!2016,!to!$48.76!in!June,!to!m ore!than!$52!in!early!2017.!
The! economy! is! also! improving,! resultin g! in! a! reduced! une m p lo y m e n t! rate,! whic h ! fell! from! 6.1%! in!
February! to!4.5%!in!November.!While! GD P!grew!by!only! abo ut!1.6%!last! year,!the!Federal!O pen!Market!
Committee!projects!growth!at!around!2.1%!in!2017.
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The! lackluster! rate! of! economic! growth! in! recent! years! surely! affected! the! financial! performance! of!
major! bus!lines.! Results! published!by!FirstGroup,!converted!from!pound!sterling!to!U.S.! d ollars,!indicate!
that!its!subsidiary,!Greyhound!Lines,!had!abo ut!a!4%!drop!in!revenues!during!its!2016!fiscal!year! (which!
ended!June! 30).!Our!analysis!suggests!that!passenger)revenues! were! d ow n ! closer! to! 5%!(an!estimate!
subject! to! rounding! error).
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! Meanwhile,! conversions! to! U.S.! dollars! indicates! that! megabus.com!
(“Megab us ”),!a !u n it!o f!S co tlan d -based!Stagecoach!Group,!had!about!a!9%!drop!in!re ve n u e!from!N o rth !
American!operations,!although!the!holding! company’s! total! revenues! in! this!region!were! down! much!
less.!These!estimates!may! b e! affected!b y! swings! in!the!exchange!rate!over! the! cou rse! of! the!year,!which!
are!not!take n !in t o !a c co u n t
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Despite!falling!revenues!from! these!two!national!providers,!the!number!of!passengers!and!passenger!
miles!of!travel!on!these!and!other!carriers!appears!to!have!fallen!by!a!much!smaller!margin,!and!in!some!
cases!even!rose!slightly.!Som e!of!the!reve nu e!drop !app ea rs!to!be!attributa ble!to!price!disco un ting!in!a!
hotly!competitive!environment!rather!than!declining!demand.! A s! n o ted ! in ! p re vio u s! Chaddick!Institute!
annual! intercity! bus! reviews,! accurate! estimates! of! bus! traffic! remain! elusive! due! to! the! absence! of!
comprehensive! reporting! requirem ents.! W e! estimate! that! total! intercity! bus! travel! stayed! relatively!
constant,! at! about! 62! million!passengers!annually,!making! the! sector!about!twice! the! size!of! Amtrak.!
Please!refer!to!last!year’s!report!fo r !a!s u mmary!of!methods!used!to!ma k e !this!earlier!est im a t e .!! !
Only! a! small! number! of! routes! were! cut! in! 2016! despite! thes e!difficult!conditions.!Citing!rising!
automobile! competition,! Megabus!discontinued!its!Cleveland,!OH!to!Atlanta,!GA!service!in!February.!
Launched! by! Co ach! U SA! subsidiary,!Lakefront!Lines,!before!being!rebranded,!this!twice-daily! service!
consisted! of! single! level! coaches! operating!via!Columbus,!Cincinnati,!OH,!and!Knoxville,!TN.!More!
significantly,! M egabu s! downsized! its! C hicago! h ub,! eliminating! its! route! to! Omaha—in! t u rn !ending!
service!to!Iowa!C ity! an d!Des!M o ines—as!well!as!service!to!East! Lansing,!M I,! in! early!2017.!These!cuts,! as!
well!as!selected!routes!in!Florida ,!mark!Meg a b u s ’!most!significa n t !d o wnsizing!in!re c e n t!y e a rs .!!
Citing! similar! concerns,! Bieber! Tourways!discontinued!service!to!Pottsville!and!Schuylkill!Haven,!PA,!
along!its!Reading!to!Philadelphia!route,!while!also!reducing!weekday!frequency!from!five!to!four!trips.!
Peter!Pan!Bus! Lines!pointed!to!soft!demand!before!discontinuing!its!Sturbridge,!MA-area!stops!along!its!
Springfield!to!Boston!route.!Frequency!on!most!o ther!routes!across!the!country!maintained!firm,!while!
some!corridors! experienced!modest!expansion,!as !noted!below.!Greyhound!appears!to!have!adjusted!to!
demand!condit io n s !la rg e ly!by!reducin g!t h e !n u mber!of!ext ra !s e ct io n s!operated!o n !major!rout e s.!! !
Several!factors!suggest!that!revenues!have!begun!rebounding!and!that!this!trend!will!continue!through!
2017!and!2018:!!
• A! consensus! exists! among! commodity! analysts! that! fuel! price s! will! m o ve ! closer! to! the! $55!
range! b y!late!201 7.!Prices!in!this! range! have!spurred!many!travelers!to!turn! to! bus!travel!due!to!
the!higher!costs!o f!driving!a nd !air!travel.!A !for ec as t!by !Wood!Mac ke n zie !is!sh o w n !in!F igu re !1.
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• London-based! investment! firm! Liberum! ex pe cts! th at! G re yh ou nd ! revenu es! w ill! be! on! the!
upswing!and!is!upgrading!its!overall!recommendation!to!make!FirstGroup!a!“buy”.!The!firm!
projects! that! Greyhound! revenues! will! rise! sharply! in! 2017,! although! some! of! the! increase!
appears! to! be! due! to! the! more! favorable! exchange! rate! when! converting! dollars! to! pounds!
sterling!following!Brexit.! !
• The!Federal!Open!M arket!Com mittee!recently!increased!its!forecast!for!national!GNP!to!2.1%!
this! year! a nd ! e xp ec ts! s im ilar! g row th ! in ! 2 01 8.!Kipplinger!projects! sim ilar! GD P! grow th,! b ut!
suggests!that!it!will!rise!to!2.5!-!3%!in!2018.
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!These! factors! certainly! brighten!the!outlook!for!intercity!bus!service,! mak ing! our! proj e ct io n ! of! 3.0% !
revenue! gro w th! (in! U .S.! d ollars)! b y! b oth ! M egabu s! and! Greyhound ,! including!its!Package!Express!
business,! a! reasonable! middle-ground! estimate! (Figure! 2).! Additional! revenue! growth,! measured! in!
pounds,! may! be! attributable! to! the! strengthening! value! of! the! U .S.! dollar.! Overall! traffic! g ro w th ! will!
likely! m irr or ! revenue ! growt h ,! with! relatively! little! change! occurring! in! averag e! fares.! For! Greyhou nd ,!
however,!it! will! likely! take! several! m ore! years!before!total!revenue! reaches! the! $1!billion!dollar! high!
achieved!in!2012,! wh ile! M egabus!revenue! growth!may!be! dam pened!somewhat!by! the!aforementioned!
service!cuts.!
TREND 2:!
Scheduled! service! in! the! Northeast! Corridor! continues! to! be! a! focal! point! for! expansion! and!
innova tio n .! L a s t! month,! Go ! B u s e s ! b e c ame!the! fifth ! c a r rie r ! t o ! o ffer!high!freq u e n c y ! se r v ic e ! a lo n g ! th e !
entire!length!of!the!Boston!to!Washington,!DC!corridor,!heightening!the!competition!facing!BoltBus,!
Greyhound,!and!Megabus.!
Throughout!most!of!the!period!from!the!early! 1990s!through!2008,!Greyhound!and!Peter! Pan!were!the!
only! providers! with! high-freq ue nc y! service! ove r! the! entire! Northeast! Corridor! between! Boston! and!
Washington,!DC,!with!the!former!generally!offering!hourly!service!both!north!and!south!of!New!York.
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!In!
2008,! BoltBus!(a!unit!of!Greyhound)!and!Megabus!launched!service!in!the!region,!once!again!giving!
customers!a!choice!between!several!carriers!with!frequent!service!over!the!entire!corridor.!!
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Go! Buses!is!the!intercity!bus!division!of!
Academy! Bus,! one!of! the! country’s!largest! bus!
operators.! Its! new! service! between! New! York,!
Washington,!DC!and!Northern!Virginia!launched!
in! December,! complementing!existing!service!
between! New! York! and! Boston/Providence.!
Academy! appears!prepared!to!elbow!its!way!
into! the! crowde d ! North e a st! ma rke t! and !
perhaps! even! intends! to! eventually! spread! its!
wings!elsewhere.!
Other!moves!by!Go!Buses!further!suggest!that!it!
is!position e d ! for ! gro wth.!In!Ma rc h ,! it! ex te n d e d !
its! Ne w ! York! to! P r ov id e nc e ,! RI! route! to ! the!
Brown!University!campus,!now!served!by!two!to!
three! coaches! in! each! directio n! from ! Thursd ay !
through! S un da y.! In ! Se pte m be r,! it! e nte red! the!
Providence!to!Cambridge/Newton,!MA! market,!
a! distinct! operation! from! its! heavily-used!
Boston! to! New! York! route.! This! route! features!
two! to! four! daily! rou nd trips,! with! prices!
generally!undercutting!commuter! rail! fares! o ut!
of!Boston’s!South!Station.!! !
Megabus!defended!its! turf! by! going ! head-to-head!against!Go!Buses!between!Newton! and! New! York,!
launchin g ! twice-daily! express! trips! that! are! similarly! separate! from! its!Boston! to! New! York! trips.! The!
carrier!also!added!a!Brattleboro,!VT!stop!to!its!Burlington!to!New!Y ork!route,!giving!that!community!a!
new!direct!service! to!Manhattan.!Furthermore,! M egabus!added!stops!in!Uncasville,!CT,!on!its!New!York!
to!Fall!River,!MA!route,!ta rgetin g!leisure!travelers!visiting!the!massive!Mohegan!Su n!Casino!and !m a king !
twice-daily!stops!in!each!direction!on!Fridays!and!Sundays.!Both!this!and!the!aforementioned!Vermont!
service!are!operated!by!Megabus’!operating!partner!Dattco .!!
Competition!on! the!route!between!Boston!and!Hyannis!in te n sif ied ! when!Peter!Pan!launched!six!daily!
roundtrips,! c ompeting!with!buses!of!the!Plymouth!&! Brockton! Street! Railway! Com pany,!a!fixture!in!
Massachusetts! transportation.! Following! Route! 6,! these! buses! also! serve! park! &!ride!locations! in!
Barnstable!and!Sagamore.!!
Greyhound!retains!a!dominant!position!in!the!Northeast!Corridor!and! h a s! a ! p a rtic u larly ! la rg e! s ta k e! in !
the!u nfo lding ! p lan s!for!the! P ort!Authority! B us!Terminal! in!Midtown ! Manhattan,! at!which! G reyh ou nd !is!a!
major!tenant.!The!Port!Authority!of!New!York!and!New!Jersey!began!the!arduous!task!of!planning!for!
the!replac em ent! of!this!aging!facility!in!2015,!and!the!planning!continues!today.!Regard ed !as!the! w o rld ’s!
busiest! bus! terminal! by! traffic! volume,! the! facility! operates! at! or! near! its! designed! capacity,! often!
causing! significant! delays! for! commuters! during! rush! hour.! According! to! a! 2016! study! by! the! Port!
Authority,!the!termina l!se r v e s!2 3 2 ,0 0 0 !p a s se ngers,!7,800 !d a ily !b uses!and!a p p roximately !6 1 5 !p e a k!hour!!
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departures! during! the! afternoon/evening! rush!
as! of! 2011.! Restricted! capacity! and! movement!
has! significantly!impeded! the ! ability! to! expand!
rush!hour!freq ue ncie s!or!ad d!n ew !serv ices.! !
Although! state! governors! and! the! agency’s!
board! agree! that! a! new! terminal! is! needed,!
several!pro blem s!stand! in!the!w ay.!Chief!among!
them! are!where!ex actly!it!will!be! loc ated ,! h ow ! it!
will! be! built! and! who! will! pay! for! what!
percentage! of! the! construction! project.! The!
latest! agenc y ! bud ge t,! wh ich ! inclu d e s! a! $3.5!
billion! fund! allocation! for! design! and!
environmental!studies,!was!approved!in!January!
2017.!Pressure!to!expand! the! terminal!w ill!likely!
grow! in! intensity! due! to!the!projected!
expansion! of! economic! activity! in! the! region!
and! th e! particular! strength! of! New! York! City’s!
economy.! !
TREND 3:!
Public! agencies! that! had! provided! subsidized! bus! services! p rimarily! to! link! rural! comm unities! with!
nearby! population! centers! are! gradually! expanding! their! focus! to! give! these! places! interlined!
connections!to!the!national!network.!The!federal!“Section!5311”!program! is!enhancing!the! strength!of!
Greyhound’s!hub-and-spoke!system,!restoring!some!of!the!connectivity!lost!decades!ago.!!
A!largely!unpublicized! trend!in!intercity!bus!travel!has!been!the!gradual!expansion! of!subsidized! service!
and! the! integration! of! this! service! into! the! Greyhound!national!network.! The ! Federal! Transit!
Administration’s!“Section!5311”!program!looms!large!in!this!arena ,!pro v idin g !fu n d ing !fo r!tra n sp o rt at io n!
services!to!communities!outside!of!urb an!areas!w ith!pop ulations!of!50,00 0!or!less.!Fund s!are!award ed!to!
state!go vernm ents,!which!are!free!to!use!the!funds!with!considerable!discretion.!The!requirement!that!
15%!of!all!funds!awarded!be!allocated!for!intercity!bus!services!has!been!a!boon!for!small-town!service.! ! !
State!and!local!governments!are!required!to!match!a!significant!portion!of!the!federal!funds!provided.!In!
some!instances,!this!is!acco mp lished!through!in-kind!service,!such!as!add itional!frequencies,!provided!by!
bus! companies.! State! and! local! governments! are! also! making! other! funds! available! for! new! “feeder!
services”!that!are!not!self-su pp orting.!It! is ! n o t ! u n co mmon!f o r! b u s ! co mpanies! to ! r ec e ive !fun ds! e qu ivale nt!
to!about!$2.00 !pe r!bus !mile!to !prov ide!th is!service.!Fo r!exa m p le,!pub lic!agen cies!m a y!give!th e!eq uiva lent!
of!$400!in!subsides!for!each!200!mile!one-way!bus!trip!operated.!!
Previous!annual!intercity!bus!reports!by!the!Chaddick!Institute!have!showcased!the!gradual!expansion!of!
the! subsidized! network.! Over! the! past! ye ar,! Greyhou n d! has! forged! arrangeme nts! to! allow! other! new!
carriers!to!sell!both!local!service!and!connections!to!more!distant!points.!This!allows!sm all!carriers!to!sell!
a!wider!array!of!destinations!to!their!customers!while!also!strengthening!the!role!of!greyhound.com!as!
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an! all-purpose! mobility! tool,! which! at! present! has! few! rivals! in! the! travel! arena.! This! strategy! also!
generates!additional!revenue!for!this!prominent!legacy!carrier.!!
Greyhound!has!also!been!active!in!expanding!its!rural!network!with!the!help!of!governmental!financial!
support.!In!Florida!in!2016,!th e!carrier!lau nched !three!new!intra-state!se rvices,!with!state!cooperation ,!
that! serv e! smaller! comm u nities! along! corridors! that! already! h ave! Greyhound ! Express! service.! A ! new!
Miami! to!Orlando! service! operates!via!Fort! Lauderdale,! West!Palm! Beach,!and! Melbourne,! while! a!new!
Miami!to!Jacksonville!service!runs!through!these!same!points!as!well!as!New!Smyrna!Beach!and!Palm!
Coast,!both!serving!many!smaller!points.!A!new!Miami!to!Tampa!service!follows!the!Atlantic!Coast!route!
to!Melbou rne !befo re!d ivergin g!to!the !w est!thro u gh!W in ter!H ave n,!Se bring ,!and !Aub u rnd ale.!
In!No rt h ! C a ro lin a ,! G r ey h o u n d !launched ! a ! o n c e-daily!Wilmington!to!Charlotte!route!with!state!support!to!
makes!stops!at!Rayetteville,!Rockingham,!Monroe!and!several!rural!towns.!In!Louisiana,!Greyhound!built!
on!the!recent!Baton!Rouge! to! New! Orleans!expansion!with!a!new!twice-daily!service!making!stops!in!
Lafayette,! Thibod aux,!Raceland,! and!other! points.!This! service! also!features!a!new!stop!at! New!Orleans’!
Louis!Armstrong!International!Airport.!!
Reallocations!in!funding!did! lead!to!the!cancellation!of!a!few!routes.!Peter!Pan!dropped!one!of!its!twice-
daily!Albany!to!Springfield!(via!Route!2)!route s!in!20 16!due!to!a!loss!o f!certain!Massachus etts!BusPlus!
program! funds,! leaving! only! one! midday! roundtrip.! True! North! Transportation! Group,! also! known! as!
MAXBus,! had! operated! a! pair! of! daily! roundtrips! in! the! north! and! eastern! parts!of!the! state! with!
governmental!support,!but!its!new!BusPlus!grant!provides!it!funding!for!only!one!Brattleboro!to!Boston!
trip,! op eratin g! via! W o rces ter! and! Framingham.! This! re sulted ! in! a! loss! of! service! to! Clinton,! Salem,!
Pelham,! Amherst! and! other! points.! These!exceptions!aside,!the!outlook!for!new!subsidized!routes!
appears!bright.!!
TREND 4:
Business!class!and! luxury! service!rem ain! on!a!growth! trajectory,!with! expansion! centered! on! specialty!
lines! rathe r ! tha n ! natio n a l! car r ie rs .! The! larg e st ! sch e d u le d ! bus ! lines ! are! not! expected! to! make! any!
major!moves!in!the!upcoming!year.!!
As! noted! in! our! previous! annual! intercity! bus! reports,! major! bus! lines! have! gradually! enhanced! the!
quality! of! their! customers’! onboard! experience! through! mobile-apps,! free! onboard! WiFi,! and! “bus!
tracker”! p ro gram s !(of!w hich !Greyhoun d’s!Bustracker,!launched!in!2 015 ,!is!am on g!the! ne w est).!Megabu s!
began!offering!reserved!seats!across!its!entire!U.S.!system!that!same!year,!with!reportedly!successful!
results,! w h ile! Grey ho un d! has ! been ! investing ! in! a! bring-your-own! device! entertainment! system.! Both!
carriers,!as!w ell!as!BoltBus,!Adirondack!Trailways,!and !Pete r!Pan ,!now!sell!tickets!through!Busbud.com!
and! Wanderu.com,! helping! make! these! “ticketing! aggregator”! sites! for! bus! travel! the! equivalent! of!
Expedia! and! Travelocity! for! air! travel.! Wanderu,! in! fact,! has! won! a! major! award! from! Conde! Nast!
Traveler.!!
Even!so,!none!of!these!bus! lines!have!made!public!any!plans!to!o ffer!business!or!first!class!service!in!
North!America,!despite!the!growing!popularity!of!premium!services!by!niche!carriers!such!as!Europe’s!
Megabus!Gold!service,!which!boasts!low-configuration!seating.!Regional!carriers,!how ever,!continue!to!
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lead! t he !way! in !the!lu x ur y!category.!Vonlane,!a!fir st !class! o p e r a to r !in!Tex a s!that! aims!to!attract! t rav e lers!
who!previously!have!used!commercial!flights,!launched!an!Austin!to!Houston!route!last!January!with!one!
or!two!roundtrips!daily.!Vonlane! now!operates!on!all!sides!of!the!Texas!Triangle,! having! launched! Dallas!
to!Austin!and!D allas!to !Ho usto n!se rvices ,!with !custom-designed!buses!replete!with!an!onboard!meeting!
room!and !m ea ls!serve d!b y!an !atten da nt.!!
In! A p ril,! Concord!expanded!its!“Plus”!service!from! New ! York! to! P ortla nd ,! ME! from! one! to! two! daily!
roundtrips,! giving! p ass en gers! a! m o rn ing! and! early! aftern oo n ! option! in! e a ch ! directio n .!First!class-style!
seating!a nd!other! a men ities,! as!well! the!convenience!of! avoiding!the! ne ed!to! transfer!in!B oston !(a!rarity!
for! bus! travelers! and! entirely! unav ailab le! for !train!travelers!between!Manhattan!and!Maine)!are!
bolstering!demand.!
In!Sep te mber,!Florid a ’s!RedCoach!launched !a !premium-level!rou te !from!the !F o rt !L a u de rd a le !a irp o rt !t o !
University! of! South! Florida! campus! in! Tampa,! a! once-a-day! with! a! stop! in! Naples! that! significantly!
expands! the! carrier’s! footprint! in! the !Sunshine!State.! The! c arrier! also! added ! a! second! Miami! sto p,!
located! at! Flo r ida ! Interna tio n a l! Univers ity ,! to! bet te r! serve! studen ts ! as! w ell! as! th o se ! traveling ! to! an d !
from!Miami!B e ach !and!d ow n tow n.!Previously,!RedCoach!only!served!Miami!International!Airport.!One!
first!class!bus !an d !o n e !b us in e ss !cla ss !b u s!make!the!new!campus!stop!in!each!direction!daily.!
TREND 5:
The!dramatic!expansion!of!Flixbus! in!Europe—and!its! acquisition!of!Megabus’!retail!operation!on!the!
continent’s!m ainland—could!foreshadow !new!approaches!to! brandin g !and !co n tr a ct in g !bus !serv ic e s !in!
the! United! States .! Interest! in! m ore ! soph isticate d! pricin g! strate gies ! is! also! growin g,! mirro ring ! those !
employed!by!commercial!airlines.!!
The!expansion!of!Flixbus!in!Europe!has!been!one!of!the!biggest!stories!in!intercity!bus!travel!over!the!
past!year.!This!technology-based! startup!has!a! business!model! that!is!quite!different!than!that!which!
prevails!in!most!of! the! U.S.! Rather!than! operating!buses,! the! company! contracts!with! existing!carriers!to!
rebrand!a s!“ Flixb use s”!in !exchange!for!taking!on!all!responsibility!for!marketing,!pricing,!scheduling!and!
promotion.!To !be!part!of!Flixbus,!carriers!need!to!adhere!to! a!rigid!set!of! q uality!control! guidelines!that!
assure!consistency!of!service.!!
FlixBus!touts!itself!not!just!as!a!bus!service!but!“a!combination! o f! tech-startup,!e-comm erce! platform!
and! trans po rtation ! compan y”.! Beginning!as!two!separate!bus!carriers,! FlixBus! and! Me inFe rnb u s!
combined!forces!in!2015!in!response!to!Germany’s!deregulation!of!the!transportation!industry.!Flixbus!
quickly!morphed!into!a!juggernaut!in!ground!travel!throughout!Continental!Europe,!an!expansion!that!
has!since!been!enhanced!by!a!European!Union!law!that!deregulates!cross-border!bus!travel.!!
Several!network!developments!in!2016!h ave!kept!FlixBus!on!a!rapid!growth!trajectory.!In!Janu ary ,!the!
company! launched! a! new ! network! of! routes! in! Cen tral! a nd! Eastern! Europe,! with! headquarters! in!
Budapest! and! Zagreb.! From! there,! new ! daily! connections! to! 50! destinations! in! the! Czech! Republic,!
Slovakia,!Hungary,!Poland!and!Croatia!were!added.!In!March,!Spain!and!the!UK!were!added!as!new!cross!
border! service! regions,! connecting! two! of! Europe’s! largest! cities! (London!and! Paris)!as! well!as! Spain,!
France!and!Italy.!!
!!
!
8!
The! month! of! June! brought! online! new! locations! to! the! Flixbus! network!with!connections!in!Croatia,!
Slovenia!and!Bucharest! in!Romania,!as!w ell!as!the!acquisition!o f!Megabus’! retail! business! in!Continental!
Europe.! With! the! latter,! Stagecoach! (parent! company! of! Megabus)! became!a!contractor!for!select!
FlixBus!services!in!Belgium,!France,!Italy,!G erm any,!Spain!and !the!Netherland s—solidifying!its!status!as!
Europe’s!largest!intercity!bus!network.!This!move!was!soon !followed!by!the!acquisition!of!Postbus,!the!
long!distanc e !coach !servic e !of!Deuts ch e !Post!(m or e!commonly!known!as!DHL!in!the!US),!in !Aug u st!and !
the!announ cem e nt!tha t!a!hub!in!Den m ark!w ou ld!be!estab lished !in!2017.!By!on e!estim ate ,!Flixbus!now !
holds!81%!of!th e !in t e rn a l!G e r man!intercity !b u s !market.
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!
Flixbus! is! eying! expan sion! elsewhere,! possibly! the! United! States,! supported! by! an! infusion! of! fresh !
venture!capital!in!late!2016.!Perhaps!the!m ost!salient!lesson!from!this!carrier!is!that!it!is!possible!for!a!
startup! to! q uickly! develop! enormous! brand! awareness! for! operators! that! once! had! o nly! a! regional!
presence,! and! to! give! smaller! operators! the! opportunity! to! gain! access! to! sophisticated! pricing! and!
scheduling!technologies!through!new !types!of!contractua l!arrangemen ts.!!
A!philosophy!similar! to!Flixbus!is! evident! in! the! Atlanta-based! Shofur,! an! innovative! transpor ta ti o n !
management! company! serving! corporate,! event! and! charter! groups,! which! made! its! first! foray! into!
scheduled! intercity! service! in! Septem ber.! Starting! with! one! daily! rou nd ! trip! linking! Austin,! H ou ston,!
Dallas! and! Waco,! the! company! attempted!to!differentiate!itself! through! tech-!and!data-focused!
customer!service,!with!tickets!so ld!both! o nline!and!through!a!mobile!app.!Coaches!were!operated!by!its!
charter!bus! p artners! an d! branded!as!Shofur!before!service!was! suspended! for! undisclosed!reasons!in!
November.!! !
Sophisticated! da ta! analysis! a nd ! technology ! a re!also!hallmarks!of!BusBot,! a! Manhatta n -based! startup!
that!uses!a rtificial!intelligence!to!help!inte rcity!bus!operations!reach!revenu e!goals.!Drawing!upon!the!
statistical!metho ds!used! for!airline!sch eduling!and! p ricing,! BusB ot!helps!bus!companies! “leverage![their]!
own! historical!data! as! well!as! external!data! to! make! better! demand! predictions”—something! smaller!
bus!lines!have!not!been!able!to!do.
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!Several!carriers!are!now!using!B usB ot’s!sched uling!and !pricing!tools!
with!reportedly!successful!res u lt s.!
TREND 6:!
New! technological! platforms! could! transform! the! way! intercity! ground! transport! services! are!
marketed!and!sold.!Innovative!app-based!services!such!as!Flitways!and!Skedaddle!have!emerged!as!
leader s!a n d !c o u ld !b e c o me!disruptive!forces!in!the!years!ahead.!!
The! following ! th ree! technolog y! in n o va tio n s ! gained! significant! momentum! in! 2016! and! could! become!
disruptive!forces! in !intercity!bus!travel.! !
Crowd-Sourced!Bus!Service:!
New! technolog ical! platforms! are! emerging! that! allow! bus! services! to! set! schedules! thro ug h!
crowdsourcing.!If!enough!travelers!express!a!willingness!to!pay,!a!bus!ca n!operate!between!two !points!
at!a!set!time!on!a!particular!day.!RallyBus!and!Skedaddle!emerged!as!market!le ad e rs !in!this!category—
both!allow!the !indiv id u al !who!launch e s !the!bus!trip!to!travel!free!if!enough!other!riders!sign!up!to!join!
!!
!
9!
the!ride.!The!fares!rise!as!the !number!of!reservations!increa s e. !If!the!trip!fails!to!attract!enough!riders,!
however,!it!does!not!operate!and!no!fares!are!collected.!!
Our!analysis!revea led!that!Skedaddle!advertised!242!routes!on!June!15,!2016,!56!routes !on!September,!
16,! 2016! and! 238! ro u tes! on! January! 9,! 2017.! This! suggests! wide! month-by-month! variation! in! trip!
availability,! and! greater! demand! fo r! trip s! when! a! large! event! is ! set! to! occur.
11
! Although! most! routes!
involve! travel! to! festivals,! music! and! sporting! events,! and! other! cultural! activities,! som e! resem b le!
intercity!services,!with!routes!leavin g!from!lo ca tio n s !advertised!as!near!the!Port!Authority!Bus!Terminal!
in!New!York.!!
At!present,!this!sector!should!be!regarded!as!an!in fa n t!industry .!As!crowd-sourced!bus!trav el!grows,!it!
will! like ly ! need! to! co nfront! regulato ry! challenges! associated! with! curbside! pickup! and! drop-off.! In!
Boston,!for! exam ple,! such!regulatio n! requires! all!intercity! bus!operators!to! use!the! Sou th! Station!Bus!
Terminal,! which! req u ires! paying! a! usage! fee.
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! In! New! Yo rk,! curbside! operators! using! advertised!
schedules! must! obtain! permits! to! serve! a! specific! loc a tio n .
13
! If! crowdsou rced! bus! service! spills! int o !
conventional!city-to-city!ro u tes,!how ever,!it!could!divert!traffic!from ! established!bus!lin es .! !
Pre-arranged!Ride!Services:!
Whereas! Lyft! and! Uber! generally! do! not! allow! customers! to! “pre-book”! rides,! several! new ! apps! are!
making! this! possible,! with! flitways.com! (Flitway s)! emerging! as! a! clear! lead e r.! Working! with! taxicab!
companies,!van !operators,!and!others,!Flitways!quotes!travelers!a!price!in!advance.!This!service!is,!at!the!
moment,!acclimated!tow ard!small!groups!and!corporate!tra velers .!A!recent!search!sh owed!that!one-way!
prices!for!a!car!with!driver!could!be!attractive!for!groups!of!three!or!fo ur!on!numerous!routes,!such!as!
Cincinnati!to!Dayton!($96),!Boston!to!Providence!($131),!and!San!Francisco!to!San!Jos e!($116) .!Although!
more! costly! th an! bus! travel,! these! services! give! tra vele rs! unable! or! unwilling! to! drive! a! new! option.!
Interestingly,!Flitways!added!Megabus!to!its!search!engine!in !2016.! !
There!is! specu lation! th at! pre-arranged!ride!apps! could! grow!in! soph istication! to! allow!for!much!more!
affordable!options.!For!example,!if! a!method!is!developed!to!match!travelers! in ! different!parties!with!
the! same! driver,! or! enlist! drivers! who! are! already! traveling! to! a! desired! destination,! prices! could! fall!
dramatically! and! possibly! compete! with! bus! travel.! Similarly,! one! can! envision! a! time! when! Lyft! and!
Uber! begin! offering! similarly! pre-arranged! rides.! At! present,! none! of! th ese ! services! appear! to! be!
dramatically! sh ifting! traffic! from! scheduled! intercity ! bus! lines,! but! th e! pace! of! tech no logica l! change!
make! the! fu ture ! difficult! to! predict.! Throughout! this! year,! the! potential! diversion! of! traffic! from!
ridesplitting! an d! pre-booked! rid e! services! seems! more! acute! for! airport! shu ttle! operators! than !
downtown-oriented!bus!operators.!!
There! is! also! concern! that! ridesourcing! companies! su ch! as! Lyft! and! Uber! might!offer!new! options!for!
travelers! willing! to! share! rides! on! inte rcit y! ro ute s.! Although! trips! over! 60! miles! are! rare! on! these!
transportation ! network!companies! tod ay,! it!seems! likely! that! such! “TNCs”! will!one! day! offer! new! low!
cost!long! distance!options!to!consum ers.! !!
!!
!
10!
II. HOW ARE CITY-TO-CITY EXPRESS BUS LINES CHANGING TRAVEL?!
This!section!evaluates!how!the!expansion!of!scheduled!inter city !bus!service!is!affecting!the!mobility!of!
U.S.! travelers.! The! analysis! focus es! particularly! on! the! nature! of! competition! between! city-to-city!
express!(C2C)!carriers,!which!are!defined!here!as!carriers!that:!
• Specialize!in!express!service!between!large!cities!
• Emphasize!online!ticketing!
• Provide!guaranteed!seating!to!all!ticket!buyers!
• Utilize!curbside!dropoff!and!pickup!in!most!cities!rather!than !co nventional!terminals! !!
These!carriers!generally!do!not!offer!interline! ticketing! with!other!bus!lines!or!provide!loca l! service!to!
smaller!communities.!They!also!avoid!having!trips!with!numerous!interme diate!stops,!which!add!trav el!
time!to!jo u rn e ys .!! !
Bestbus,!Go!Buses,!BoltBus,!Vamoose,!Tripper!Bus,!and!Megabus!are!among!th e!carriers!in!this!category.!
Some!bus!lines!have!several!but!not!all!of!the!qualities!of!C2C!carriers,!and!are!thus!excluded!from !our!
consideration.!!
The!results!are!based!on!a!data!set!created!by!the!Chaddick!Institu te!with!inform a tio n !on!ro u tes!served !
by! leadin g ! C2C! carriers.! For! each! segment,! the! mileage! and! schedule! frequen cy ! was! reco rde d,! and!
informa tio n ! was! collected! to! determine! the! status! of! competing! Greyhound,!Amtrak,! and! air! se rvice.!
Longer!multi-segments!journeys !were!used!to!evaluate!the!airline!competition,!and!Am trak!routes!were!
evaluated!to!assess!the!bus-rail! co mp etitive!overlap.!!
Three!findings!stan d!out!fro m !this!data:!!
FINDING 1:
Despite!being! relatively! new ! to!the! U.S.!marketplace,!BoltBus!and! Megabus!have!grown!to! operate!
247!in te r c ity !pairs.!Less!than!a!quarter!of!Megabus’!daily!bus!mileage!competes!with!BoltBus,!while!
most!of!BoltBus’!service!competes!head- to -head!against!its!larger!rival.!!
The!find ing s!show!the!enormous!impact!that!BoltBus!and!Megabus!have!had!since!they!began!service!
on! the! U.S.! mainland! in! 2006! an d! 2008,! resp ectiv ely.! Analysis! of! the! sched ule! inform a tio n ! described!
above!suggests!that!Megabus!operates!about!41!million!bus!miles!year,!making!it!approximately!th ree!
times!larger!than!Boltbus!(14!million!bus!miles)!and!about!one-third!the!size!of!Greyhound!(114!million!
bus!miles).!Megabus!operates!slightly!more!bus!miles!than!Amtrak!does!train!miles!(about!38!million),!
but!far!fewer!seat!miles.!!
Megabus! tends! to ! overlap! less! with! other! prominent! C2C! carriers! than! BoltBus! does.! Jus t! 24%! of!
Megabus!departures!com pete!directly!with!BoltBus!and!other!prominent!C2C!carriers.!Its!entire!Atlanta,!
Chicago,! and ! Texas! hubs,! for! example,! lack! prominent! C2C! com petition.! Conversely,! BoltBus,! with! its!
focus! on! high-density! corridors,! faces ! competition! from! Megabus! on! 65%! of! its! routes.! Among! the!
routes!served!by!Boltbus!not!served!by!other!C2C!carriers!are!Los!Angeles!to!Las!Vegas!and! Po rtland,!OR!
to!Vancouver,!BC,!via!Seattle.!!
!!
!
11!
Although! it! is! not! considered! a! C2C! carrier,! Greyhound! has! an! alm ost! ubiquitous! presence! for! route!
competition.! BoltBus! and! Megabus! face! com petition! from! it! on! more! than! 90%! of! their! route! miles,!
although!only!a!relatively!small!share!of!these!carrier's!bus!miles!overlap!with!the!premium!Greyhound)
Express!service.!!
FINDING 2:
Amtrak! fa ces ! comp etition! from! BoltBus! or! Megabus! on! nearly! three! quarters! of! its! short-! and!
medium-distance!corridor!mileage.!More!than!a!th ird!of!Megabus!bus!miles,!how ever,!are!on!routes!
not%served!by!Amtrak.!!
Competition!between!express!bus!and!Amtrak!service!is!intense!and!growing,!although!relatively!little!
analysis! of! the! nature! of! this! competition! has! been! undertaken.! Our! analysis! shows! that! 97.6%! of!
Boltbus’!bus!miles!are!on!routes!that!are!com p etitive!with!Amtrak!(all!but!the!Barstow,!CA!to!Las!Vegas!
segment,!part!of!its!route!from!Los!Angeles!to !the!Nevada!gaming!center),!while!just !68.6%!of!Megabus’!
bus!miles!compete!with!Amtrak.!Among!the!most!notable!ro u tes!not)served!by!Amtrak!are!BoltBus’!Los!
Angeles!to!Las!Vegas!ro u te!and!Megabus’!Dallas!to!Houston!and!Chicago!to!Columbus,!OH!and!Louisville!
services,!as!well!as!its!extensive!operations!to/from!Atlanta,!eastern!Tennessee,!and!State!College,!PA.!
The!analysis! in !Table!1 !su ggests!that,!on! Am trak-competitive!route s,!26%!of!all!Megabus!departures!are!
less!than!0.3!miles!aw ay!from !Am trak!departure!points,!includin g !th os e!in !Boston,!Chicago,!Pittsburgh,!
and! Washington,! which! are! within! or! imme d ia te ly! adjacent! to ! train! platforms.! Another! 11%! of!
departures,!such!as!those!in!Philadelphia,!Providence,!and!Reno!are!jus t!0.3!-!0.49!miles!away,!making!
them!less!than!10!minute!walk!apart.!The!majority!(63 % ),!however,!are!a!half-mile!or!more!away,!with!
Orlando’s!Megabus!pick-up!point!being!among!the !fa rthe st!away!from!Amtrak!(eight!miles).!!
!
!!
!
12!
Many!cities! have! pushed! bus! com pan ies! to! move!out! of! central! business! districts!or! away! from! train!
stations! because! of! congestion! and! crowd! control.! Thus,! it! is! a! mischaracterization! to! claim! th at! C2C!
buses!invariably ! ch oose!departure!locatio n s!immediate ly ! ad jacent!to!major!train!stations.!!
Across!Amtrak’s!entire!21,822!route-mile!network,!9,935!miles!(46%)! are! subject! to ! competition!from!
BoltBus!and!Megabus.!Among!the!4,854!miles!that!com prise!its!short-!an d!medium-distance!corridors,!
3,598!miles! (74% )! are!subject! to! competition.! Trains! on! the!Northeast!Corridor! (NE C),! easily!Amtrak’s!
busiest!ro ute ,! fac e! competition!from! both! BoltBus! and! Megabus,!while!69%! of! Amtrak!routes! outside!
the!NEC!face! co mp etition!from!one!bus!provider.
14
!
The! special! pattern! of! bus-rail! competition! is! depicted! in! Figure! 4,! which! shows! short-! and! medium-
distance!Amtrak!co rridors!with!multiple!daily!train!frequencies !in!bold.!The!most!notable!rou tes!without)
bus! competition! (s ho w n! in! light! blue)! are! Los! Angeles! to! San! Diego;! Oakland! to! Sacramento! an d!
Bakersfield;!and!Chicago!to!Carbondale!and!West!Quincy.!The!relatively!short!distance!associated!with!
some! routes! appears! to! offset! som e! of! the! advantages! of! bus! service.! The! two! California! routes!
mentioned!above,!for!exam ple,!are!le ss !than!125!miles!lo n g .!Competition!from!buses!is!also!relatively!
modest!on!the!90-mile!Chicago!to !Milwaukee!corridor,!over!which!Megabus!generally!operates!only!a!
pair!of!daily!roun dtrips!compared!to!Amtrak’s!seven.!On!most!other!ro ute s,!however,!th e!freque nc y!of!
bus!service!is!comp arable!to ,!or!above,!th at!offered!by!the!rail!operators.!
The!se verity!of!th e!competition!on!some!routes!is!also!lessen ed !by!the!absence!of!BoltBus!or!Megabus!
service! to ! interm ed ia te ! stops.! Buses! often! run ! express! from! one! end! of! the! corridor! to! the! other,!
bypassing! along-the-way! cities! that! are! th e! source! of! many! Amtrak! passengers.! This! is! evident! on!
Amtrak’s!Chicago!to!St.!Louis!ro ute ,!which!serves!Joliet,!Bloomington,!Springfield!and!other!cities!in!the!
Prairie!State!that!are!not!served!by!C2C!carriers.!The!Northeast!Corridor!is !one!of!the!fe w !corridors!in!
which!there! is!compe titive! C2C!bus! service!at! many! intermediate! stops,!and! even! the n! these! carriers!
often!only!operate!from!the!inte rm e d ia ry ! city!to ! th e!major!cities,!without!linking!sm aller!stops.!!
A!large! number!of!Megabus!routes! conne ct!cities!in!which!no!Amtrak!service!is!available!(Figu re! 5).!A!
particularly!large!number!emanate!from !Atlanta,!Columbus!(O H ),!Houston,!Louisville,!State!College!(PA)!
and! various! Tennessee! points,!inclu d in g ! Chattanooga,! Memphis! and! Nashville.! These! cities! are! either!
along! only! one! Amtrak! route,! or,!like! Chattanooga,! Columbus,!Louisville,!Nashville,! and! State! College,!
have!no!inter city !train!service!at!all.!This!sug gests!that!C2C!carriers!are!making!notable!contributions!to!
mobility!in!areas!poorly!served!by!Am trak.!!
!!
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!!
!
14!
!!
!
15!
FINDING 3:
Despite'the'rapid'expansion'of' city-to-city' express'service,'many'markets'remain' unserved' by'these'
popular'carriers.'Moreover,'many'corridors'can'be're gard ed'as'“Ground'Transportation'Gaps”,'as'they'
also' lack ' rail-passenger' service,' making' options' for' ground' travel' other' than' private' automobiles'
extremely'limited.!
City-to-city!express!bus!service!is ! quite!pervasive!among! the ! country’s! most!heavily-traveled ! city! pairs!
(i.e.,!origin-destination!combinations).!Consider!first!the!sector’s!prevalence!in!the!200!heavily-traveled!
city! pairs! in! the! United! States.! The! lis t! of! these! markets! was! obtained! fro m ! the ! fede rally! sp onso red!
Multimodal! Interreg io n a l! Passenger! Travel! Origin! Destination! Data! project
15
.! C2C! carriers! are! quite!
prevalent! among! the! subset! of! city! pairs! that! are! between! 100! and! 375! miles! and! link! cities! with!
populations!of!at!least!100,000!people—qualities!that! make!them! favorable !for!bus!travel.!Among!the !
50!largest !cities!th at!meet!these!criteria,!C2C!carriers!serve!30,!or!60%!of!the!total.!Among!all!128!city!
pairs!that!meet!these!distance!and!population!criteria,!the!sector!serves!63,!or!slightly!less!than!half.!!
The!most!heavily-traveled!ro u tes!that!meet!the!population!criteria!mentioned!above!that!are!not!served!
by!C2C! lines! are!shown! in ! Table!2.!The!largest! city!pair!not$ served! is! Los! Angeles!to! San!Diego,!which !
ranks!second !in ! vo lume!among!routes!meeting!these! criteria.!
As! can ! be! seen! on! Table! 2,! many! underserved!
routes! invo lve ! an! en dpoint! with! a! metropolitan!
population!of!less!than!half-million.!As!noted!in!the!
right-hand! column,! Megabus! has! previously! served!
a!significant!number!of!the se!routes.!
Other! notable! city! pairs! that! are! not! on! the ! list!
(some!of!which!involved!distances!of!more!than!375!
miles)!include !Columbus,!OH!to!Detroit,!MI;!Fresno!
to! Los! Angeles;! Los! Angeles! to! Sacramento;!
Brownsville,! TX! to! San! Antonio;! and! El! Paso! to!
Albuquerque.! C2C! service! is! even! less! com mo n! in !
markets!th at!are!more!than!400!miles! ap art,!as!that!
distance! makes! bus! trave l! to o! time-consum ing! for!
most!travelers.!
Some! city! pairs! could! be! regarde d! as! “Ground!
Transportation!Gaps”!as!they!lack!not!only!C2C!bus!
service!but! Amtrak!service! as! well.!Convention! bus!
service!is!generally!available!on!these!route s.!Some!
travelers,! however,! are! (rightly! or! wrongly)!
unwilling! to! travel! on! conventional! bus! lines,!
making! their! options! fo r! ground! tra nsp orta tion ,!
other!than!driving!quite!limited.!!
Largest City Pairs Not Served by
City-to-City Express Bus Lines
TABLE 2
110-375 MILES
RANK
2
14
20
22
CITY PAIR MILES NOTES
Los Angeles – San Diego
Bakersfield – Los Angeles
Phoenix – Tucson
Norfolk/Virg.Beach – Washington DC
124
113 Amtrak Thruway Bus Service
116
209
29
30
33
Los Angeles – Phoenix
New York – Scranton
Laredo – San Antonio
Former Megabus route
372 Former Megabus route
120
156
57
58
59
64
Asheville – Atlanta
Detroit – Grand Rapids Former Megabus route
Phoenix – San Diego
Chicago – Peoria
199
158
355
166
69
72
73
Dallas – Oklahoma City
Harrisburg – Washington
Cincinnati – Columbus Former Megabus route
206
120
111
!!
!
16!
!
!!
!
17!
On! some! of! these! ro ute s,! bus! trav elers! must! also! accept! th e! uncertainties! of! traveling! without! a!
guaranteed! seat.! This! often! lead s ! to!travelers! arriving! at! the! bus!station!very! early! to! assure! they!are!
able!to!board!the!bus,!even!though!the!risk!of!not!getting!a!seat!on!a!preferred!bus!is!generally!minimal!
due! to! advances! in! computer! reservations! systems.! Heavily-traveled ! Ground! Transportation! Gaps!
include !Chicago!to!Peoria,!IL!and!Ft.!Wayne,!IN;!Detroit!to!Columbus,!OH!and!Cincinnati;!Atlanta,!GA!to!
Asheville,!NC!and!numerous!routes! in !south!Texas!centered!around!San!Antonio!(Figu re!6).!!
These! resu lts! illustrate! that,! while! C2C! bus! service! has! had! transformative ! effects,! many! markets!
remained!unserved.!While!Amtrak’s!corridors!have!been!affected!by!this!competition,!its!long!distance!
routes! have! been! largely! unaffected.!In! the! short! term ,! expansion! by! C2C! carriers! is! arguably! a! more!
viable! way! to! bring! improved! service! to ! the! aforementioned! Ground! Transportation! Gaps! than! th e!
expansion! of! rail! service.! New! rail! service! generally! takes! years! to! launch,! while!the! economics! of! air!
service!make!it!difficult!for!airlines!to!profit!with!low!fa res !on!routes!less!tha n!250!miles.!
Future! Chaddick! In s tit u te! reports! will! seek! to! conduct! additional! analysis!of! the! competitive! status! of!
bus!service!and!the!outlook!for!expansion!into!previously!unserved!markets.!!
To# reach# the# study # team,# please# email# [email protected]# or# call# 312.362.5731.# Additional#
Chaddick#Ins titu t e#publications,#inc lu d in g #past#annual#reviews#of#intercity #bus#travel,#can#be#found#at#
las.dep a u l.e d u / Chaddick.
!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1
Estimates!for!average!fuel!prices!obtained!from!the!U .S .!E n e rg y !In fo rmation!Adm in ist ra t io n .!
http://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/!
2
!These!estimated!are!from!the!Bureau!of!Transportation!Statistics!for!schedule!domestic!air!fares.!!For!an!easily!
accessed!summary!of!this!information,!please!refer!to!https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_average_airfares/BTS!
3
!GDP!estimate!from!Kip lin g e r.c o m!are!obtaine d !fro m!http://www.kiplinger.com/article/business/T019-C000-S010-
gdp-growth-rate- an d-fo rec ast.h tm l! !
4
!FirstGroup!reports!the!share!of!its!revenue!from!fare!revenue,!Package!Express,!food!sales,!and!other!category!in!
percentages!round!to!the!nearest!integer,!which!prevent!precise!estimates!of!trends.!These!estimates!are!based!
on!those!integrals.!However,!the!share!of!revenue!attributable!to!passenger!operations!in!2015!for!passenger!
revenue!is!assum ed !to!b e!79 .4% !(rath er!tha n!7 0% )!du e!to !the!fac t!that!th is!nu m b er!ap pe ars!to !hov er!ne ar!80 % .!!
5
!Exchanges!rates!were!derived!by!taking!the!arithmetic!average!of!the!U.S.!Federal!Government’s!recommend!
exchange!rate!conversations!for!the!two!yea rs!in!w hich !eac h!fisca l!year!strad d les.!!!F o r!e x a mple,!the!excha n g e !ra te !
for!the!2010!fiscal!ye ar!is!th e!a vera ge !for!20 0 9!a n d !2 0 1 0 .!!The!following !GBP!to!USD!rates!are!used:!2010:!!.6730,!
2011:!.6610,!2012:!.6525,!2013:!!.6605,!2014:!.6 5 85 ,!2 0 16:!.6755!
6
!Projection s !fo r !fu e l!p ric e s!o b t a in e d !fro m!http://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/prices.cfm!
7
!The!announcement!by!the!Federal!Open!Committee!can!be!found!at:!
http://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/republicans/analysis?ID=DE809839-03D8-4102-9AE1-AF4982C79762!
Please!refer!to!footnote!3!for!the!Kipplinger!link.!
8
!Vamoo s e !b rie fly !o p e ra te d !b u s e s!f ro m!New!York!to !both!the!Bost o n !a n d !Washington!metropolitan!a r e as !in !2 0 0 7!
!!
!
18!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
9
!For!a!summary!Flixbus’!German!market!share,!please!refer!to!https://global.handelsblatt.com/companies-
markets/flixbus-grows-up-603094!
10
!For!information!abou t!t h is!s ta r tu p ,!p le a se !r ef er !to !www.busbot.us!!
11
!The!Last!B u s !S ta r tu p !S ta n d in g ,!Tech!Crunch,!Nov e mber!29,!2016 . !!Accessed!on!September!5,!2016!at!
https://techcrunch.com/2015/11/29/the-last-bus- startup -stan ding-chariot/!
12
!“Boston !A r e a!T e rminal!Activity!an d !C a p a c ity ,”!2 0 1 3 !Massachusetts!Region!Bus!Study,!Boston!Regional!
Metropolitan!Planning!Organization,!2013.!!Acces s ed !on!Septemb e r!2 ,!2 0 1 6!at!!!
http://www.ctps.org/data/html/studies/transit/2013_Mass_Regional_Bus_Study/CH4_Regional_Bus_Study.html!
13
!Intercity!B u s!P e rmits,!New!Yor k!Department !o f!T ra n s p o rt at io n .!!n .d . !!A cc e ss e d !o n !S e p te mber!2,!2016!at !!
http://www.nyc.gov/html/dot/html/ferrybus/intercity-bus.shtml!
14
!Amtrak’s!Coast!Starlight!competes!with!BoltBus!and!Megabus!on!the!Los!Angeles!–!San!F ra n c isc o !ro u t e ,!b u t!t h is!
route!has!only!on e!tra in!in!ea ch!d irectio n!d aily!an d!th us !is!not!classified!as!a!corridor.!!
15
!For!a!summary!of!this!re sea rch!initia tive,!p le a s e !re fe r !to :!!
https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/analysisframework/03.cfm!
